NBU’s message report says, Ukrainian News reports.
“In 2018, the National Bank awaits about 2 bln dollars from IMF as well as government loans from EU and World Bank. It will allow increasing international reserves up to USD 21.6 bln as of the current year”, it says.
Meanwhile, NBU emphasizes that in 2019 and 2020, due to peak payments of the public external debt, the balance of payments will run deficit and the international reserves will somehow decrease.
The National Bank considers that the main risk for realization of the specified macroeconomic forecast is the implementation of structural reforms, necessary for preserving macro-financial stability and cooperation with IMF.
The postponement of necessary steps for renewing cooperation with official lenders narrows the window of opportunities in attracting necessary funding for making peak payments of the public debt in 2018 – 2020.
Therefore, according to the National Bank, the urgent strengthening of efforts for continuing cooperation with IMF is critically important for preserving the macro-financial stability of Ukraine.
The weighty risk is also the government’s implementation of softer fiscal policy, in particular further increase of social expenditure with higher pace than productivity gains in the economy that can strengthen the inflation pressure.
As NBU’s Deputy Governor Dmitri Sologub said during press conference, IMF tranche is expected at the beginning of 3rd quarter.
“We consider that it may happen at the beginning of the third quarter”, he said.